The Carry Trade Explained: Why USD/JPY Rises Slowly and Falls Fast
Borrow where rates are low, lend where they are high, pocket the difference. The carry trade is simple to describe, profitable for long stretches, and prone to violent unwinds.
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Currency markets explained: how central bank policy, interest rate differentials and economic data drive EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the other major pairs.
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Borrow where rates are low, lend where they are high, pocket the difference. The carry trade is simple to describe, profitable for long stretches, and prone to violent unwinds.
The DXY is the headline measure of dollar strength, but its weightings were set in 1973 and it is more than half a euro trade. Here is what it measures and when to use something else.
Verbal warnings, direct intervention, capital controls and coordinated action. Central banks have several tools for influencing a currency, and their track records differ sharply.
The Fed rarely surprises with the rate itself. What moves currencies is the projected path, the language, and the gap between what the market expected and what it heard.
Forecasting a currency pair with a single number is close to useless. Building a scenario map — what happens under each policy path, and what would falsify it — is a far more honest method.
EUR/USD is roughly a quarter of all foreign exchange turnover. Its movement comes down to the rate differential, growth divergence, energy, and the dollar's role as a safe haven.
A pip is the unit currencies move in. A lot is how much you hold. Combining them gives the number that matters most — what one pip of movement costs you in real money.
Leverage does not make you more likely to be right. It shortens the distance between being wrong and being closed out. Here is exactly how margin, liquidation and position sizing interact.
Sterling against the dollar is more volatile than EUR/USD, and for identifiable reasons: a smaller economy, a large current account deficit, and an unusually finance-heavy composition.